Gold: imminent breakout?

This consolidation is really testing my patience, especially last week when gold traded below $875 following a $50 sell off in less than two trading sessions. But I've held on, and good things come to those who wait.

The chart below is the best I can make of what's been going on: two small falling wedges within one large falling wedge. The first small falling wedge broke on 6/6 by Trichet's speech during the ECB meeting, and the second small falling wedge broke yesterday following a disappointing (for dollar bulls) G8 meeting and a crude rally to $140. Yesterday's gold rally stopped dead at the upper boundary of the large falling wedge.

Gold: 1-month


So what's next? Gold is either going to violently break out of the large falling wedge or fall to the lower boundary. Fundamentally, we have a shift in Fed tone (slightly dovish), and tomorrow we have crude supply data coming out. Another bullish factor is that the GLD trust has been slowly increasing its gold bullion inventory. Although this probably doesn't matter much in the short term, the GLD trust bought 12.27 tonnes of gold, TODAY ALONE: look at the last two lines on the table below.