Friday, November 02, 2007

Gear Shift in Gold: acceleration mode

Stocks sold off yesterday on diminished rate cut hopes, and precious metals also experienced selling pressures. While silver futures sold off all the way to 14, gold futures held steady at 790. I have been silver-biased for a while (perhaps because I was long silver during its parabolic rise in early 2006), but after experiencing a blow to my pnl yesterday, I acknowledge that gold is better. Silver may tend to outperform gold during strong rallies, but silver is more volatile and vulnerable during times of risk aversion in the markets (like right now: look at bonds). Gold has shifted gears to acceleration mode (chart below), and interestingly, the start of the new uptrend line coincides with the 10/19 stock market sell off. Don't forget that the Fed has cut 75 bp in the past six weeks, and there is still a lot more reflation to go. Everybody is talking about $100 crude, but it won't be long before we hear $1000 gold in the media.