Many people are expecting a bear market rally in stocks right now, but I think there may be more downside left (i.e. S&P will break below 1200 before there's any kind of rally). Alternatively, I'm also considering the possibility of reflation. Excluding food and energy prices, there's actually deflation in the economy right now, and I'm wondering if some sort of reflation is around the corner. If so, we can see a rally in stocks, commodities (optimal scenario for mining stocks), and FX all at the same time. Of course, the dollar will be sacrificed. I think the best option for central banks right now is to finally open up the monetary spigot.
Whatever the case, it's good to know that gold does well during both inflation (as a hedge) and deflation (as money).
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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