Friday, July 11, 2008

Interpreting EUR/JPY and Equity Divergence

During the past half-decade, eur/jpy has (had) been highly correlated to stocks. This correlation is currently breaking down. So what does a rising eur/jpy mean after a wild consolidation since the subprime crisis went full blown last summer? I think it means that deleveraging is slowing down as investors are finally grasping the direction of various markets and acknowledging that a bear market in stocks has begun. Therefore, the divergence between eur/jpy and stocks will continue, whereas eur/jpy and gold, for example, will start to correlate.

EUR/JPY and SPX: 6-year


EUR/JPY and Gold: 2-year

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