Interpreting FOMC Statement and New Gold Target

I'm a little busy studying for the NY bar (...yeah~), so my posts will be more short and infrequent until the end of July. There's no need to dissect every word on today's fairly bland FOMC statement, but I think there are two important takeaways: (1) the statement was not hawkish; and (2) the statement mentioned that "the committee expects inflation to moderate later this year." Despite the neutral stance, I think the statement, taken as a whole, should be interpreted as dovish. According to interest rate futures, there's a 75% chance the the Fed will raise rates 50bp by December, but I strongly believe that such expectations will reverse as the economy and stock market weaken into Q3 and Q4.

This morning's positive crude inventory numbers sold off crude, which pulled down gold as well. But following the FOMC statement, gold quickly rebounded to form a big hammer for the day. The euro closed above $1.56, and it should continue to rise and test $1.60. Gold is going through a pretty complex and prolonged consolidation, but it will come to an end fairly soon. At this point, I would like to make an important forecast for gold: a break above 920 by the end of next week. If this forecast doesn't materialize, I might have to reconsider gold's outlook for the next couple of months.