Thoughts before Fed announcement

Good morning. Today is Fed day, and the markets have taken some risk off the table during the past two days. Crude, gold and silver saw a sharp sell off as traders took profit ahead of Fed day. My positions were also stopped out, but I did notice that euro/yen and nzd/yen were not budging. Let's also not forget that reflation is still in tact. A positive market reaction to the Fed today will probably send bond prices to 111-112, while gold will break above 800. There is a lot of talk about how the Fed must meet market expectations (futures predict 95% of 25bp cut), and we will most likely see a 25bp cut. If the Fed doesn't meet market expectations, things could get really nasty.