Hurricane coin toss

Since falling from $8.5, natural gas has been trying to find a bottom (low: $5.25). Natural gas has recently formed what seems to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern (not shown here), with a very pronounced support/resistance at $6, as shown below (also the right shoulder of the pattern). I have missed a couple opportunities to play the natty roulette at $6, and it looks like I finally have a chance.













Making things more interesting is a potential hurricane development in the Gulf of Mexico, and whether this system develops into a serious threat depends on which course it takes, as shown below. The strength of the potential hurricane is directly correlated to how long the system hovers over the currently warm sea waters. I'm betting that the system will float west and develop into a hurricane significant enough to nudge natural gas prices higher. Although natural gas is heavily weather/inventory driven, it has not really participated in the broad inflationary rally in commodities, and it will be interesting to see how it performs in the coming weeks.